Expert Political Judgment

"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting." --Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, Nobel Laureate in Economics "It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock‘s new book ... that people who make prediction their business ... are no better than the rest of us." --Louis Menand, New Yorker"The definitive work on this question." --Gavyn Davies, Financial Times "[This] book ... marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case.Expert Political Judgment... summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project.... The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that ‘experts‘ exist at all." --Geoffrey Colvin, Fortune "This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed." --Robert Jervis, Columbia University "This book is just what one would expect from America‘s most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock‘s fascinating arguments." --Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University