Smith, C: Anticipating African Conflicts

The African Union (AU) is currently developing a Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) in Africa. The aim is to detect social situations that may evolve into conflict. Clearly, this is an ambitious undertaking as there are so many kinds of conflicts on the continent, triggered by so many different causes. In this study the capability of the AU to create an early warning system that looks into the causes of all kinds of conflicts in the Horn of Africa is discussed. The AU hopes to use sub-regional mechanisms in Africa as the main suppliers of information to CEWS, and the co-operation with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the Horn is also looked into. Hopefully, this study will contribute to a better understanding of what kinds of conflicts such a system needs to monitor. There are many challenges facing the AU, as lack of political will seem to impede the progress of CEWS. Still, if the organisation eventually succeeds in developing a mechanism that anticipates conflicts, it would be a giant leap forward for a continent where conflicts have had so devastating consequences.